IPCC Report: Window To Act On Climate Crisis Closing Fast

“Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. The likely range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850-1900 to 2010-2019 is 0.8°C to 1.3°C”

This is the stark warning from today’s IPPC report – we are actively changing Earth’s ability to sustain life at a natural level, and are already dangerously close to a 1.5°C rise in the average global temperature.

Passing this threshold will kick-start irreversible processes that will impact every living person and creature on this planet.

The 3,949 page report – Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis – is the latest in a long line of reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and compiles the work of thousands of scientists using millions of data points from around the world to understand both present and historic climate data.

Today we look at the findings of the report, the severity of the situation that we face, and the necessary actions that we all need to take in order to avert climate catastrophe.

Measurement Improvements

This is the sixth such report produced by the IPCC since its inception in 1988.

It compares a range of scenarios – from what would happen if we significantly lowered our greenhouse gas emissions in the next few years, through to what will happen if we increase our greenhouse gas emissions, particularly the levels of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere.

This is the most accurate report produced by the IPCC to date, and the Technical Summary details the considerable improvements made in recording, modelling and comparing both current and historical climate observations.

**Graph showing the** **long-term increase of average** **temperatures in Ireland between 1901-2019. Credit: Prof Ed Hawkins**

As such, there can be no doubt that this is humanity’s best collective understanding of the Climate Crisis, and our role in perpetuating it.

For anyone interested in reading Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, we’d recommend starting with the summary for policymakers, as this is the most accessible introduction to the severity of the Climate Crisis.

While the report itself is a stark warning that will worsen even the most optimistic person’s Climate Anxiety, it repeatedly presents one clear solution for the problems that we face: reduce emissions, and reduce them now.

“There can be no doubt that this is humanity’s best collective understanding of the Climate Crisis, and our role in perpetuating it”

Stark Findings

“Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered. Global warming of 1.5C and 2C will be exceeded during the 21st Century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.”

The report makes clear that human greenhouse gas emissions have warmed air, land and sea, resulting in “widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere” – in short, nowhere on Earth has been left untouched by the Climate Crisis.

**History of global temperature change and causes of recent warming. Credit: IPCC**

In the seas, the IPCC reports that the global upper ocean (0-700m) has warmed since the 1970s, and that there has been a simultaneous drop in the oxygen levels in the upper ocean regions since the mid-20th Century.

As a result, the oceans are less able to capture CO2 than they once were, and this is set to worsen unless we curb greenhouse gas emissions: “Under scenarios with increasing CO2 emissions, the ocean and land carbon sinks are projected to be less effective at slowing the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.”

Alongside this, global mean sea levels increased by 0.20m between 1901 and 2018 – meaning that average sea levels have risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in at least the last 3,000 years.

“In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than any time in at least 2 million years”

A key factor in this is Arctic sea ice loss, with the report highlighting: “In 2011-2020, annual average Arctic sea ice area reached its lowest since at least 1850 […] late summer sea ice area was smaller than any time in at least the past 1,000 years.”

Meanwhile, in 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than any time in at least 2 million years, and concentrations of methane and nitrogen oxide were higher than any time in at least 800,000 years.

The Future We Face

The IPCC report is clear about the severity of the situation that we face.

Without reducing greenhouse gas emissions immediately, we risk locking ourselves into a permanent feedback loop that will continue to worsen the Climate Crisis.

For example, thawing permafrost is already releasing vast amounts of ancient CO2 and methane into the atmosphere, increasing the average global temperature, which in turn will mean more permafrost will melt, and repeat the process.

These are the results; our current emissions are the catalyst.

“Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Evidence of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts and tropical cyclones has strengthened since AR5 (the previous IPCC report).”

As a result, extreme weather events which previously occurred only once in every decade will be twice as likely to occur under 2°C warming. The global surge of wildfires, droughts and floods in recent weeks is evidence that this is already underway, and the situation could become considerably more dire, as the IPCC warn:

“Abrupt responses and tipping points of the climate system, such as strongly increased Antarctic ice sheet melt and forest dieback, cannot be ruled out.”

Again, we are already seeing these tipping points take hold, with a study from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany declaring just last week that we are already seeing warning signs of the Gulf Stream collapsing.

How To Overcome The Climate Crisis

The IPCC report is incredibly clear in offering a solution to the Climate Crisis: cut emissions and cut them now.

**Climate change is already affecting every inhabited region across the globe with human influence contributing to many observed changes in weather and climate extremes. Credit - IPCC**

While most governments are discussing cutting emissions by 2050 and promoting the concept of ‘net-zero’ emissions – rather than being truly carbon neutral – the IPCC report repeats time and again that the only solution is to cut emissions right now and to go beyond net-zero targets:

“This relationship implies that reaching net zero anthropogenic CO2 emissions is a requirement to stabilize human-induced global temperature increase at any level, but that limiting global temperature increase to a specific level would imply limiting cumulative CO2 emissions to within a carbon budget”.

“If global net negative CO2 emissions were to be achieved and be sustained, the global CO2-induced surface temperature would be gradually reversed, but other climate changes would continue in their current direction for decades to millennia. For instance, it would take several centuries to millennia for global mean sea level to reverse course even under large net negative CO2 emissions”.

If we take the Climate Crisis as seriously as we should, there is hope that we can restore some natural balances and avert the worst potential outcomes – if we act immediately: “Scenarios with very low or low GHG emissions lead within years to discernable effects on greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, and air quality, relative to high and very high GHG emissions scenarios.”

In such a scenario, we could see global surface temperatures return to near-natural states “within around 20 years” according to the IPCC report.

“The Irish government has declared an Emergency but consigned the patient to a 30 year wait in the Emergency Room before they can receive the necessary treatment”

Treat The Emergency Like An Emergency

Ireland is a perfect example of global political and legislative inaction on the Climate Crisis.

Despite becoming the second country to declare a Climate Emergency in May 2019, little has meaningfully changed in response to that declaration.

Much like the Covid-19 pandemic, the overwhelming political response to the Climate Crisis seems to have been hopeful wishing that it would resolve itself without any real intervention.

Instead, it has been up to the nation’s citizens to provoke a political response, as seen by the Climate Case Ireland ruling, where the Irish Supreme Court found that the government’s persistent inaction on the Climate Crisis was jeopardising both constitutional and human rights.

**It took the action of citizens to hold the Irish government accountable for its inaction on the Climate Crisis, which threatens both planetary health and human health. Credit: Climate Case Ireland**

Frankly the subsequent changes to the government’s National Mitigation Plan following the Climate Case Ireland ruling have been shown to fail to meet the required levels of action – in short the Irish government has declared an Emergency but consigned the patient to a 30 year wait in the Emergency Room before they can receive the necessary treatment.

A failure to act now is a failure to support a just transition, where people in the Global North recognise that those living in the Global South are least responsible for emissions, but most vulnerable to the effects of the Climate Crisis.

In short – the average person in Ireland has a carbon footprint nearly three times larger than the average person on Earth. It is time to pull our weight.

Sadly, we cannot rely on our respective governments to take action - they have repeatedly passed the burden for action onto the next generation, and the next since the 1960s.

This is why we believe that international legislation on ecocide will be so essential in holding governments and corporations accountable for their inaction.

What Can You Do?

The first thing you can do is not ignore the findings of this report. Don’t bury your head in the sand, or feel that the harm cannot be undo – we have the power in our hands to make a change today.

Secondly, as the brilliant Mary Heglar recently tweeted: “Learn the difference between someone who is fearmongering and someone who is just scared.”

Climate Anxiety is on the rise and is a legitimate mental health issue – it is perfectly natural to be afraid and upset when faced with an existential crisis of this magnitude. If you are suffering with Climate Anxiety, we have some advice on how to manage it, but the best thing to do is to talk and to take action.

In terms of action, we’d recommend that you start by understanding your own carbon footprint so that you can identify where you can live more sustainably. Read our article How To Calculate Your Carbon Footprint to find out more.

“The choice we face is not between hypocrisy and purity, but between hypocrisy and cynicism. It is better to strive to do good, and often fail, than not to strive at all.”

Ireland also has some brilliant organisations who put pressure on the government and corporations to tackle the worst greenhouse gas emitters, and to who raise awareness of the severity of the Climate Crisis – and how to overcome it.

Joining these groups will help you to take affirmative action and not be passive as the Climate Crisis worsens:

These organisations not only have like-minded people, but also plenty of great resources to help you, your family and your friends to live more sustainably, and can help you move from anxiety to action.

We’ll leave you with one final thought to help you draw a line in the sand and make today the day that you stand up to the Climate Crisis. As the environmental writer George Monbiot says, we’re all imperfect but striving to take action is the minimum we can do:

“Like other prominent activists, I will be lambasted for hypocrisy: this is now the favoured means of trying to take down climate activists. Yes, we are hypocrites. Because we are embedded in the systems we contest, and life is complicated, no one has ever achieved moral purity. The choice we face is not between hypocrisy and purity, but between hypocrisy and cynicism. It is better to strive to do good, and often fail, than not to strive at all.”