How Mobile Sales Show EVs Path For Growth

For all their promise and the important role that they can play in averting the climate crisis, electric vehicles still have a huge amount of detractors.

It is rare for a week to go by where a big oil firm, automotive manufacturer or opinionated journalist doesn’t issue some statement on why electric cars won’t catch on. Typically their arguments fall into one of two categories; vested interest in selling an oil-based product (such as eFuels), or the regurgitation of an out-dated and ill-informed myth about EVs.

IrishEVs was created to address many of these common myths to help Irish consumers to make better-informed choices about electric cars, and to see the role that they can play in reducing their carbon footprint.

Today we look at the all-too-common myth that EVs will never catch on, and look at how mobile phone sales provide a helpful analogy on how disruptive technologies can quickly gain a foothold worldwide.

“They’ll never catch on”

We’ve previously reported on ICCRA – an organisation that is lobbying to delay Ireland’s emissions regulations by a decade to increase the profit margins of car dealers – and their repeated assertions that electric cars won’t catch on.

Using selective data they have repeatedly asserted that electric vehicles account for too little of the market share to be of note, and that the government’s aim to have 1 million EVs on the roads of Ireland by 2030 “should be sounding alarm bells”.

That statement was issued to the press – and widely reported without question in the Irish media – in July 2020.

And yet, a mere six months the Society of the Irish Motor Industry has reported that EV sales grew 16% year-on-year in 2020, in a year when new car sales dropped by 25% overall.

This isn’t just a marker of EV adoption, but also of awareness about the Climate Crisis.

In 2011, diesel cars accounted for 75.7% of new vehicle sales in Norway, but they account for just 8.6% now as consumers have understood the human- and planetary-health implications of these vehicles, and have been incentivised to make greener choices.

Christina Bu of the Norwegian EV Association commented on this trend in an interview with the World Economic Forum: “Our preliminary forecast is for electric cars to surpass 65% of the market in 2021. If we manage that, the goal of selling only zero-emission cars in 2025 will be within reach.”

While the sales figures might seem small now, ICCRA and others have overlooked the potential for exponential growth that we’re seeing in markets like Norway – and which are prevalent in other disruptive technologies.

Dialling Up Sales

While it may seem odd to compare mobile phones with electric cars, there is a useful analogy to be seen in how attitudes towards them shifted in a relatively short period of time, as the technology became cheaper and more readily available– something we’re already seeing with EVs – driving an explosion in sales.

Sadly there is little data available on Irish mobile phone sales during this period, but we can suppose that they followed a similar trajectory to the UK given that the Irish Times reported the following on 14th August 2000:

“Mobile phones could soon replace the pint of Guinness as the quintessential symbol of Ireland. Almost half the population have bought into the ‘wireless revolution’ and some analysts predict there is scope for 100 per cent mobile penetration as free spending consumers buy more than one handset for work and pleasure.”

Today 96% of Irish adults own a mobile phone, with 91% owning a smartphone according to Deloitte’s Mobile Consumer Survey 2019.

With the Nissan Leaf kicking off the modern, mass-market electric car revolution back in 2010, we are now past the beyond the first decade of availability and already starting to see sales take off as prices begin to fall and availability increases.

In 2019 alone, car manufacturers launched 105 new BEVs – while Tesla, who have been ever-present at the forefront of the EV revolution, reported 1,664% growth in quarterly sales in the six years leading up to October 2019.

As such, it isn’t hard to see that EVs may well be on the same sales trajectory as mobile phones – an initial decade of awareness, followed by a decade of rapid growth to the point of full market penetration.

And, unlike mobile phones, the biggest competitors of the electric car – those powered by internal combustion engines – are set to be banned from sale in Ireland from 2030, which will only catalyse BEV sales futher.

Be wary of those who tell you EVs won’t take off, and be careful to question their motives.